# Table 3: Portfolio Allocation Results

## Model Summary

| Model | Dep Var | N | Countries | R² | ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1a: Z → debt_share | debt_share | 5447 | 174 | 0.027 | 0.940 |
| M1b: OECD Z → debt_share | debt_share | 1301 | 37 | 0.024 | 0.974 |
| M1c: Non-OECD Z → debt_share | debt_share | 4146 | 137 | 0.025 | 0.933 |
| M1d: Z×KAOPEN → debt_share | debt_share | 5447 | 174 | 0.048 | 0.939 |
| M2a: Z → safe_share | safe_share | 1432 | 75 | 0.054 | 0.727 |
| M2b: OECD Z → safe_share | safe_share | 802 | 37 | 0.004 | 0.750 |
| M2c: Z×KAOPEN → safe_share | safe_share | 1432 | 75 | 0.057 | 0.726 |
| M3a: Z → equity_share | equity_share | 5435 | 174 | 0.124 | 0.985 |
| M3b: OECD Z → equity_share | equity_share | 1301 | 37 | 0.089 | 0.990 |
| M4: age → debt_share | debt_share | 5447 | 174 | 0.013 | 0.940 |
| M4: age → safe_share | safe_share | 1432 | 75 | 0.053 | 0.727 |
| M4: age → equity_share | equity_share | 5435 | 174 | 0.090 | 0.984 |
| M5a: Z → debt/equity ratio | debt_equity_ratio | 3865 | 152 | 0.136 | 0.943 |
| M5b: OECD Z → debt/equity | debt_equity_ratio | 1288 | 37 | 0.212 | 0.915 |
| M6_Low: Z → debt_share | debt_share | 1724 | 57 | 0.117 | 0.899 |
| M6_Mid: Z → debt_share | debt_share | 1808 | 58 | 0.119 | 0.937 |
| M6_High: Z → debt_share | debt_share | 1834 | 56 | -0.026 | 0.971 |

## Key Coefficients

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M1a: Z → debt_share | Z_1 | -0.3929 | 0.2515 | 0.1183 |  |
| M1a: Z → debt_share | Z_2 | 0.0406 | 0.0376 | 0.2804 |  |
| M1a: Z → debt_share | Z_3 | -0.0011 | 0.0015 | 0.4800 |  |
| M1b: OECD Z → debt_share | Z_1 | -0.0300 | 0.6292 | 0.9619 |  |
| M1b: OECD Z → debt_share | Z_2 | 0.0324 | 0.0856 | 0.7050 |  |
| M1b: OECD Z → debt_share | Z_3 | -0.0019 | 0.0033 | 0.5564 |  |
| M1c: Non-OECD Z → debt_share | Z_1 | -0.2805 | 0.2916 | 0.3361 |  |
| M1c: Non-OECD Z → debt_share | Z_2 | 0.0208 | 0.0442 | 0.6381 |  |
| M1c: Non-OECD Z → debt_share | Z_3 | -0.0002 | 0.0018 | 0.9184 |  |
| M1d: Z×KAOPEN → debt_share | Z_1 | -0.3329 | 0.2550 | 0.1919 |  |
| M1d: Z×KAOPEN → debt_share | Z_2 | 0.0286 | 0.0384 | 0.4552 |  |
| M1d: Z×KAOPEN → debt_share | Z_3 | -0.0005 | 0.0016 | 0.7522 |  |
| M1d: Z×KAOPEN → debt_share | Z_1_x_kaopen | -0.0276 | 0.1168 | 0.8129 |  |
| M1d: Z×KAOPEN → debt_share | Z_2_x_kaopen | 0.0085 | 0.0177 | 0.6294 |  |
| M1d: Z×KAOPEN → debt_share | Z_3_x_kaopen | -0.0005 | 0.0007 | 0.5058 |  |
| M2a: Z → safe_share | Z_1 | -0.0877 | 0.5663 | 0.8770 |  |
| M2a: Z → safe_share | Z_2 | -0.0068 | 0.0785 | 0.9310 |  |
| M2a: Z → safe_share | Z_3 | 0.0008 | 0.0030 | 0.7843 |  |
| M2b: OECD Z → safe_share | Z_1 | -0.2403 | 1.0645 | 0.8215 |  |
| M2b: OECD Z → safe_share | Z_2 | 0.0356 | 0.1417 | 0.8015 |  |
| M2b: OECD Z → safe_share | Z_3 | -0.0014 | 0.0053 | 0.7861 |  |
| M2c: Z×KAOPEN → safe_share | Z_1 | -0.0801 | 0.6583 | 0.9032 |  |
| M2c: Z×KAOPEN → safe_share | Z_2 | 0.0041 | 0.0914 | 0.9639 |  |
| M2c: Z×KAOPEN → safe_share | Z_3 | 0.0000 | 0.0036 | 0.9932 |  |
| M2c: Z×KAOPEN → safe_share | Z_1_x_kaopen | 0.0234 | 0.3763 | 0.9504 |  |
| M2c: Z×KAOPEN → safe_share | Z_2_x_kaopen | -0.0139 | 0.0524 | 0.7914 |  |
| M2c: Z×KAOPEN → safe_share | Z_3_x_kaopen | 0.0008 | 0.0020 | 0.6803 |  |
| M3a: Z → equity_share | Z_1 | -0.2693 | 0.1031 | 0.0090 | *** |
| M3a: Z → equity_share | Z_2 | 0.0504 | 0.0154 | 0.0011 | *** |
| M3a: Z → equity_share | Z_3 | -0.0023 | 0.0006 | 0.0004 | *** |
| M3b: OECD Z → equity_share | Z_1 | 0.3910 | 0.3722 | 0.2936 |  |
| M3b: OECD Z → equity_share | Z_2 | -0.0673 | 0.0507 | 0.1847 |  |
| M3b: OECD Z → equity_share | Z_3 | 0.0030 | 0.0019 | 0.1285 |  |
| M4: age → debt_share | old_dep | 0.1151 | 0.1450 | 0.4273 |  |
| M4: age → debt_share | youth_dep | 0.1602 | 0.0486 | 0.0010 | *** |
| M4: age → safe_share | old_dep | 0.4119 | 0.1744 | 0.0183 | ** |
| M4: age → safe_share | youth_dep | 0.2503 | 0.1348 | 0.0635 | * |
| M4: age → equity_share | old_dep | 0.4028 | 0.0783 | 0.0000 | *** |
| M4: age → equity_share | youth_dep | -0.0504 | 0.0245 | 0.0399 | ** |
| M5a: Z → debt/equity ratio | Z_1 | -27.6722 | 26.6186 | 0.2986 |  |
| M5a: Z → debt/equity ratio | Z_2 | 1.5804 | 3.9177 | 0.6867 |  |
| M5a: Z → debt/equity ratio | Z_3 | -0.0072 | 0.1578 | 0.9635 |  |
| M5b: OECD Z → debt/equity | Z_1 | 100.3261 | 60.3804 | 0.0968 | * |
| M5b: OECD Z → debt/equity | Z_2 | -10.0319 | 8.1717 | 0.2198 |  |
| M5b: OECD Z → debt/equity | Z_3 | 0.2640 | 0.3091 | 0.3932 |  |
| M6_Low: Z → debt_share | Z_1 | -0.3837 | 0.6054 | 0.5264 |  |
| M6_Low: Z → debt_share | Z_2 | 0.0209 | 0.0945 | 0.8247 |  |
| M6_Low: Z → debt_share | Z_3 | 0.0002 | 0.0040 | 0.9565 |  |
| M6_Mid: Z → debt_share | Z_1 | -1.0683 | 0.4716 | 0.0236 | ** |
| M6_Mid: Z → debt_share | Z_2 | 0.1150 | 0.0705 | 0.1027 |  |
| M6_Mid: Z → debt_share | Z_3 | -0.0033 | 0.0029 | 0.2459 |  |
| M6_High: Z → debt_share | Z_1 | 0.1576 | 0.2944 | 0.5925 |  |
| M6_High: Z → debt_share | Z_2 | -0.0248 | 0.0416 | 0.5522 |  |
| M6_High: Z → debt_share | Z_3 | 0.0009 | 0.0017 | 0.5700 |  |

*Controls: rgdp_growth, inflation, fiscal_bal_gdp, kaopen, nfa_gdp_lag*
*PanelGLS with AR(1) correction, no fixed effects.*
*debt_share = debt_assets_gdp / gross_assets_gdp.*
*safe_share = bilateral debt to AA-or-above destinations / total bilateral debt (CPIS).*